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BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ)·Q2 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2026 delivered resilient fundamentals: total revenues $5.380B (+3.4% YoY), net sales $5.257B (+3.2% YoY), adjusted EPS $1.14 (+4.6% YoY), and merchandise comps ex-gas +2.3% driven by traffic and units .
  • Versus consensus, BJ’s posted an EPS beat and a revenue miss: EPS $1.14 vs $1.09*, revenue $5.380B vs $5.484B*; mix shift and weather dampened discretionary GM, while consumables/perishables stayed strong .
  • Management raised FY 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.20–$4.35 (from $4.10–$4.30) and maintained comp ex-gas growth of 2.0–3.5%; capex unchanged at ~$800M .
  • Strategic momentum: membership reached 8.0M, higher-tier penetration hit 41%, digitally enabled comps +34%, and net leverage at 0.4x; these are key stock reaction catalysts alongside the guide raise .

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We reached the 8,000,000 member milestone,” with higher-tier penetration at a record 41% (+50 bps QoQ), validating membership quality improvement .
  • Digitally enabled comp sales grew 34% YoY; app usage set records as BJ’s leaned into BOPIC, same-day delivery, and Express Pay to elevate convenience .
  • Merchandise margin rate (ex gas) expanded ~10 bps YoY, and adjusted EBITDA grew ~8% YoY to $303.9M on strong MFI and disciplined cost management .

What Went Wrong

  • General merchandise/services comp declined 2.2%; double-digit declines in high-ticket discretionary categories (e.g., recreation, lawn & garden) amid wet/cold weather and macro caution; apparel was a bright spot .
  • Management cautioned that tariff-related volatility and prudently “buying less” in certain tariff-exposed categories (e.g., holiday décor) could cap upside versus earlier expectations .
  • SG&A deleveraged slightly vs net sales due to new unit growth and investments (Q2 SG&A ~$786.4M); BJ’s expects ongoing back-half investments to protect member value .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Total Revenues ($USD)$5,278.526B $5,153.483B $5,380.240B
Net Sales ($USD)$5,161.536B $5,033.094B $5,256.907B
Operating Income ($USD)$178.393M $203.645M $216.530M
Net Income ($USD)$122.662M $149.768M $150.705M
EPS (Diluted) ($)$0.92 $1.13 $1.14
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.93 $1.14 $1.14
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD)$264.568M $285.836M $303.861M
Merchandise Gross Margin (YoY Δ)-10 bps +30 bps +10 bps

Consensus vs Actual (S&P Global)

MetricQ4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
EPS – Actual ($)0.931.131.14
EPS – Consensus ($)0.87*0.91*1.09*
Revenue – Actual ($USD)5.279B5.153B5.380B
Revenue – Consensus ($USD)5.270B*5.186B*5.484B*

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment and KPIs

MetricQ4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Merchandise Comp ex-Gas (%)4.6% 3.9% 2.3%
Grocery/Perishables/Sundries Comp (%)>4% >4% 3%
GM & Services Comp (%)>5% Slightly negative -2.2%
Digitally Enabled Comp (%)26% 35% 34%
Comp Gallons (YoY at pumps)+3% ~+2% Flat (industry low-single-digit decline)
Membership Fee Income ($USD)$116.990M $120.389M $123.333M
Member Count (Millions)>7.5 —8.0
Higher-Tier Penetration (%)~40% >40% (surpassed) 41%
Net Leverage (x)~0.5x —0.4x
Inventory – Per Club YoY~Flat -2% (absolute per club) -6% per club; in-stocks +50 bps
Share Repurchase645K shrs; $61.6M (Q4) 55K shrs; $6.2M (Q1) 375K shrs; $41.2M (Q2)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EPSFY 2025$4.10–$4.30 (Mar 6) $4.20–$4.35 (Aug 22) Raised
Comp Sales ex-Gas (%)FY 20252.0–3.5% (Mar 6) 2.0–3.5% (Aug 22) Maintained
Capital Expenditures ($)FY 2025~$800M (Mar 6) ~$800M (Aug 22) Maintained
Effective Tax Rate (%)FY 2025~27% plan Q2 actual 26.9% Plan maintained; actual slightly below

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2025 (Prior-2)Q1 2026 (Prior-1)Q2 2026 (Current)Trend
Membership quality and scaleRenewal 90%; >7.5M members; higher-tier ~40% Higher-tier surpassed 40% 8.0M members; higher-tier 41% Improving
Fresh 2.0 (produce, meat/seafood)Double-digit produce comps; plan to broaden Meat/seafood chain-wide launch; produce HSD–LDD units Perishables led; meat/seafood early strong; salvage improvements Positive execution
Digital convenience26% digital comp; 60% app engagement 35% digital comp; picking efficiency via AI/robots 34% digital comp; record adoption; >50% active use app Structurally strong
Tariffs/macroLess import exposure; club channel relevance in inflation Guidance acknowledges wider outcomes; tariff scenarios embedded Prudently “buying less” in tariff-exposed GM; upside capped Ongoing headwind
General merchandise transformationGM >5% comp; toys/electronics strong Slightly negative GM; apparel & electronics strong GM -2.2%; weather/macro; apparel grew L-SD Mixed
Gas share and value+3% comp gallons; normalization of profit/gal +~2% comp gallons; industry down Flat comp gallons vs industry down; ~$0.20/gal savings Share gains intact
Real estate expansion25–30 clubs over 2 yrs; DFW entry in 2026 Five clubs opened in Q1; relocations planned First relocation completed; 8 more clubs planned in rest of year Accelerating

Management Commentary

  • “We reached the 8,000,000 member milestone this quarter… higher-tier penetration… to an all-time high of 41%” — Bob Eddy .
  • “Digitally enabled comp sales… grew 34% year over year… Over 90% of our digital sales are fulfilled by our clubs” — Laura Felice .
  • “Tariff situation… we are better insulated from the impact of imports than most of our competitors… buying less may hamper [upside]” — Bob Eddy .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA grew approximately 8% YoY to $303.9M… underscores the durability and consistency of our business” — Laura Felice .
  • “We are maintaining comp ex-gas… and updating our adjusted EPS guide to $4.20 to $4.35” — Laura Felice .

Q&A Highlights

  • Weather cadence and inventory: weak May; strength in June/July; per-club inventory down ~6% YoY with in-stocks +50 bps; prudent buys to avoid markdown risk .
  • Back-half outlook: wide comp range (1–4% rounded) retained given uncertainty; more margin investments to protect value; raised bottom-line guidance despite choppy backdrop .
  • Membership fee income trajectory: growth expected to accelerate through year, supported by fee increase and higher-tier upgrades .
  • Tariffs/GM strategy: buying less in categories with higher tariffs (e.g., holiday décor); conservative stance in discretionary GM while leaning into value/price investments .
  • Gas dynamics: flat comp gallons vs industry decline; ~$0.20/gal average member savings; total gallons +7% including new stations .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2026: EPS $1.14 vs $1.09* (beat); revenue $5.380B vs $5.484B* (miss). Expect estimate revisions to reflect resilience in earnings and membership but continued discretionary softness and tariff prudence .
  • Trajectory: Q1 2026 EPS beat with slight revenue miss; Q4 2025 both EPS and revenue near or above consensus; FY 2025 EPS above and revenue slightly below consensus*, consistent with BJ’s value-first posture .
  • Implication: Street may raise FY EPS (management already did) but trim top-line GM expectations given management’s “buy less” stance and macro uncertainty*.

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Membership scale/quality is a durable growth driver (8.0M members; higher-tier 41%); supports traffic, baskets, and renewal economics .
  • Earnings power intact: Q2 EPS beat and FY EPS guide raised despite cautious GM ordering and tariff volatility—underscores pricing muscle and consumables strength .
  • Near-term mix risk: discretionary GM likely remains pressured vs consumables; positioning portfolios for value-oriented comps makes sense .
  • Back-half margin investments expected; model for some gross margin pressure vs Q1/Q2 cadence, with offset from MFI growth and digital scale .
  • Digital convenience is comp-accretive and loyalty-enhancing (34% digital comp; >50% app use); operational efficiencies (AI/robots) support scalability .
  • Gas value continues to attract members (~$0.20/gal savings), aiding share gains at pumps and higher-tier uptake .
  • Expansion runway: 8 more clubs planned this year; relocations and DFW entry in 2026 expand TAM while capex held at ~$800M .